New Trucking Company Registrations Are Seasonal

Most people assume new business formation is roughly steady from month to month — a little noise, no real pattern. Our own registration data says otherwise. Across the two years we've tracked so far, the swing between the slowest and busiest months is consistently over 50%, and it lands on the same calendar months both times. That's not noise. It's worth planning around.

The pattern: a sharp Q1 build into a March peak

March was the single busiest month for new carrier registrations in both 2025 and 2026 — the only month in either year to clear 17,000 nationally. Both years show the same shape leading up to it: registrations jump sharply from February to March (+16.3% in 2025, +19.9% in 2026), after a relatively flat January and February.

March 2025 came in 15.9% above January 2025. March 2026 came in 18.3% above January 2026. Two separate years, same month, same direction, similar magnitude — that's a real seasonal signal, not a one-off.

The trough: Q4 is the quietest quarter

2025 is the only full Q4 we've tracked so far, so we're describing one year's data here rather than a confirmed multi-year pattern — but it's a pronounced one. Registrations fell 19.8% from October to November 2025, and November and December were the two lowest months of the entire year: 11,210 and 11,593 respectively, against a March peak of 17,079. That's a 52.4% swing from trough to peak within a single year.

New carrier registrations nationally, by month. Full breakdown by state and business type in the live report.

What this means if you're prospecting

• Don't read a thin Q4 list as a data problem. If November and December feel quiet compared to spring, that's the market, not a broken feed — the same dip shows up in the one full year we've measured so far.
• Plan outreach capacity for a Q1 surge. Our Q1 2026 average ran 27.4% above Q4 2025's average. If your team's cadence is built around a flat, steady monthly volume, March is where that assumption breaks — and where you're most likely to be understaffed relative to the opportunity.
• Everyone else sees the same pattern. A March surge is also a March surge in competition. Insurance agents, factoring reps, and dispatchers who build their outreach rhythm around this pattern in advance — rather than reacting to it in the moment — get to the March cohort first.

Why this is worth tracking from source data

This pattern comes directly from FMCSA's own registration filings, aggregated by the date each carrier registered — not a survey, not an estimate. See what the Company Census File actually is for the full source explanation. As more months land, the seasonal picture gets sharper — this is one year fully confirmed, a second year tracking the same shape so far.